Morning Comments; Monday, June 29th, 2020
Agrivisor - SETZ - Mon Jun 29, 6:37AM CDT

The majority of today’s session will focus on final positioning ahead of the long-awaited Quarterly Stocks and Revised Plantings reports from the USDA. Acreage has been doubted ever since the USDA released its prospective report in March, especially the corn figure at 97 million acres. Initially it was thought this number was well above actual plantings, and acres would be closer to 92 or 93 million. Since then trade has adjusted its opinion, and now some feel corn plantings will be closer to 94 or even 95 million acres. If correct, this will alter what may are forecasting for production and ending stocks as well. The same scenario is taking place in soybeans where acres are expected to increase by 2 million. This would put total soybean plantings close to 85.5 million. Given the yields being forecast, this would generate large crops for both commodities. There will also be a considerable amount of interest on stocks as they will give us a clearer indication of what our ending stocks might be. Once all of this data is released, trade will quickly revert to immediate growing conditions and crop reports. Crop conditions have been stressful over the past few weeks and some forecasters have started to lower their yield estimates as a result. This is a somewhat misleading statement though, as we have to look at what was being predicted for yields to begin with. Many of these were above the trend yield from the baseline reports late last year, including the USDA yield of 178.5 bpa that is being used in balance sheets. It is not out of the question on corn that we could see reduction to yields and acres and the end result could still be negative for futures.

Highlights

* Month/Quarter End is tomorrow

* FND positioning today

* Stocks/acreage report tomorrow at 11:00 AM CST

* Stats Canada acreage estimate today

* US drier than normal in many areas

* Heat to build in ECB today

* Ethanol values drop last week

* States again closing some businesses

* Rapid rise seen in Covid after opening

* Short trade this week for July 4th

* Markets close early Thursday, closed all day Friday

Corn

* Steady rating expected tonight

* China continues to hold auctions

* New crop sales slowing

* China corn imports remain minimal

* Slowing demand tempers production worries

Soybeans

* Rating may improve tonight

* Elevated new crop demand continues

* Farmer selling picks up

* Chinese imports +27.4% in May

* Global production forecast rising

Wheat

* Ukraine may limit exports

* Rains delay US harvest

* Northern Plains turning dry

* Dry conditions reported in Australia

* Argentine crop being hampered by drought

Livestock

* Beef values continue to erode

* Packers again facing labor issues

* Chinese May pork imports at 370,000 mt

* Yearly Chinese pork imports 1.72 mmt

* Wholesale values under pressure

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named. This is not independent research and is provided as a service. As such, this is considered a solicitation.




 

Market Commentary provided by:

Karl Setzer Grain Commentary